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June 2005: Weather Forecasts for Weather Traders
If Johannes Kepler, the renowned 17th century astronomer and discoverer of the planetary laws of motion, could speak from the heavenlies, he might have a few words of wisdom to share with the National Weather Service. Although Kepler's name is not normally associated with meteorology, he was quite the weather forecaster in his day. His first claim to fame, by the way, was not due to his discovery of those planetary laws, but because of his accurate long-range weather forecast of the severe winter that put Styermark, Germany on ice in 1593. Kepler's genius and outside-the-box thinking led him to equate terrestrial weather patterns with the geometrical formations made between the earth and planets. Since these formations could be calculated in advance, he reasoned, their effect on the weather could be as well. Through the publishing of his almanacs, the Royal Astronomer helped make ends meet when at times the kings who employed him were delinquent in their payments.Kepler's contribution to meteorology, along with his long-range forecast method, have all but been forgotten. And as would be expected, present day meteorology, ashamedly, has no real long-range weather forecast capability. Even armed with the most advanced weather computer, whose lightning fast calculations approach about 400 million per second, its three-day forecasts are speculative, and its six to seven day forecasts are worthless. In this day and age when the flaws and limitations of many conventional procedures and methods have come to light, man is seeking and finding solutions in alternative methodologies. Just about every area of life boasts of some alternative option. So why not alternative weather forecasts based on natural, environmentally safe, and providentially-provided processes? Wouldn't it be great to know the times and places of hurricane formation and landfall months in advance? How about the when and where of other weather anomalies such as deep freezes, severe storms systems, and high velocity winds? All this is possible with Kepler's method and would be a welcomed alternative for weather sensitive businesses like agriculture, the weather derivatives market, transportation etc. Although no forecast system, be it conventional or alternative, is 100 percent accurate, it is worth noting that based on this method my published long-range hurricane forecasts, prepared months in advance, were fulfilled in Hurricanes Isis (1998), Alberto (2000), Gilma (2000), and Tropical Storm Claudette (2003). Based on Kepler's method, some of the best and worst weather for June 2005 is as follows: Forecast May 31-June 3, 2005: Meanwhile over the Texas and the Plains, warm moist air is drawn northward and will react with the colder, drier air over the Rockies. This combination should ignite severe storms over the Front Range, Texas, and the Plains. Tornado activity is a distinct possibility. June 1-4, 2005: June 4-7, 2005: June 7-11, 2005: June 12, 2005: June 13-15, 2005: June 14-16, 2005 Tropical Storm formation may be possible in the Gulf around 86 West longitude and 26 North latitude, as well as in the area between the Florida Keys and Cuba. June 17-19, 2005: June 20-22, 2005: June 18-20, 2005: June 22-23, 2005: June 24-27, 2005: A major storm system affects the Northeast and New England. Most likely a good amount of moisture is drawn northward triggering storms and rain. A tropical system cannot be ruled out. In some cases, the initial reaction appears in the form of a strong high pressure system bringing high heat that then erupts in storms. June 25-27, 2005: June 27-July 1, 2005: June 29, 2005: Ken Paone has been working with Kepler's long-range weather forecasting method for about 14 years. His published forecasts have appeared internationally. You can email Ken at kensweather@msn.com. The results of his latest long-range forecasts are available on his blog at http://www.theweatheralternative.blogspot.com
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